Most horses that are turned out quickly, under a penalty, are attempting to take advantage of a handicap mark that will almost certainly be higher, once reassessed, and two such horses form the basis of this week’s ‘Deadly’ Double at Hamilton on Wednesday.
In the Racing to School Handicap (3.05), Final Venture reappears, under a 6lb penalty, just two days after making all to win a similar race, over 6 furlongs, at Carlisle. The Equiano gelding won over course and distance on his penultimate start, so dropping back a furlong or so in distance clearly isn’t an issue and the drop back into 0-75 shouldn’t do his hat-trick attempt any harm either.
In the next race, the St. Andrews Ambulance Handicap (3.40), Millefiori also reappears two days after winning at Ayr and appears to have an outstanding chance of completing a hat-trick under a 6lb penalty. Formerly with Hugo Palmer, the Mastercraftsman filly has really found her form for Adrian Keatley in recent weeks, winning twice at Ayr in the space of five days, and cannot realistically be opposed.
Selections: Hamilton 3.05 Final Venture, Hamilton 3.40 Millefiori, 1-point Win Double
In the 7.40 at Catterick on Friday, Rusty Rocket makes a quick reappearance after winning narrowly at Redcar on Monday and can defy a 6lb penalty. Paul Green’s seven-year-old drops back into 0-80 company under the welter burden of 10st 4lb, but apprentice Paddy Pilley takes off a useful 5lb and the son of Majestic Missile has won under 9st 7lb and 9st 9lb in the past. He’s on a career-high mark, but connections are clearly keen to strike while the iron is hot and the hint looks worth taking.
In the 8.10, Astra Hall won with plenty in hand over course and distance last month and can defy a further 8lb rise in the weights. Michael Appleby’s seven-year-old mare has yet to win on going faster than good, so connections will be hoping that the showers forecast for Wednesday and Thursday cause some easing of the prevailing good to firm going but, in any case, her one and only run on faster going was inconclusive. The daughter of Halling has yet to win off a mark this high, but has finally emerged from a lengthy spell in the doldrums and has looked better than ever since returned to turf last month. She has clearly struck up a good relationship with apprentice George Bucknell, who’s 2-2 on her, and the partnership can complete a hat-trick.
Selections: Catterick 7.40 Rusty Rocket, Catterick 8.10 Astra Hall, 1-point Win Double
In the Weekend Fillies’ Stakes (3.30) at York on Friday, Nemoralia was the comfortable winner of a nursery handicap, over 6½ furlongs, at Doncaster off a handicap mark of 87 when last seen in this country, but took her form to new heights in the United States last autumn. Her third of 14, beaten 1 length, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland last October is far and away the best single piece of form on offer and she can make a winning reappearance.
In the Yorkshire Cup (4.05) at York, Clever Cookie and Flying Officer were separated by just a neck in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month and, with the benefit of that run, and on 5lb better terms, the latter can reverse the form. John Gosden’s 6-year-old is equally effective at today’s shorter distance and, arguably, better suited by the prevailing good going than his old rival, so is quite a confident selection.
Selections: York 3.30 Nemoralia, York 4.05 Flying Officer, 1-point Win Double
Well of course a single bet isn’t a multiple bet or an accumulator of any kind, in fact it’s the very opposite. However for the sake of completeness of covering every type of bet, this is ground that we have to cover. In many ways, a single bet of course is the least complicated and most straightforward type of bet of them all. There is no ambiguity. The up side is that if your bet comes in – essentially your estimation that a single event will happen – then you are a winner. If it doesn’t, you lose.
Profiting from single bets can be easier said than done depending on the odds of your selection and whether it is over or under priced. A single bet can be a bet that is sometimes heavily odds on. Say 1-20, meaning that you’d need to bet £20 to see a £1 return should your selection win . Hardly something that would lead you to be laughing all the way to the bank.
Let’s not underestimate single bets though. There have been huge odds single bets that have come in over the years. Many of them occur ‘in running’ / ‘in play, on Betfair for instance where a punter decides in that particular moment that something simply can’t happen, and as a result sometimes offers huge odds in the hope of making a few pounds in the process. Of course mostly they will be right, but on rare occasion they’ll get it wrong and off goes their cash, just like that.
Even in recent times, and with bookmakers rather than fellow punters, there have been huge priced offerings that more often than not people have shied away from. How can we forget the fact that Leicester City were a gigantic 5000-1 to win the Premier League at the start of the 2015 / 16 season? A single bet, no complicated configuration of results needs. No doubles, no trebles, no four or five fold. What an opportunity to cash in that was, only very few punter did, even Leicester City fans! A tenner bet to win £50,000 cold hard cash! It’s important in betting to take opportunities when you see them, though to be fair, who couldn’t seen that one coming. Who knows when the next 5000-1 winner will come along. Keep those eyes peeled!
In the 8.15 at Chelmsford on Wednesday, Nearly Caught has run just twice on an artificial surface, winning at Kempton as a three-year-old and failing by just half a length to overhaul Pinzolo in this race last year. Hughie Morrison’s six-year-old has since finished fifth of 34, beaten just 1½ lengths, behind Grumeti in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and won a conditions stakes race at Pontefract by 10 lengths, so can easily be forgiven his rather lacklustre seasonal debut at Nottingham four weeks ago. He appears versatile with regard to distance so, with the benefit of that run, he may prove too good for Amour De Nuit, who’s favoured by the race conditions, but returns from an absence of 200 days off a 16lb higher mark than when winning at Ayr last September.
Earlier in the evening, in the 7.15, Both Sides finished clear second over a mile on the track on his Polytrack debut in March and, with an extra two furlongs likely to play to his strength, the beautifully bred gelding – by Lawman out of a Nureyev mare – can open his account. He has to concede 5lb to Introductory, but Mark Johnston’s filly was put firmly in her place, at odds-on, by seemingly exposed stable companion Kelvin Hall at Wolverhampton last month and has something to prove on her Polytrack debut.
Selections: Chelmsford 8.15 Nearly Caught, Chelmsford 7.15 Both Sides, 1-point Win Double